Reopening Direct Negotiations

To hear some tell it, the resumption of direct peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians means the dawn of hope in the Middle East. Others, including much of the Israeli media, discount any chance of success. The truth appears to lie somewhere in the middle.
Why the talks might fail:

• A peace accord will entail painful concessions on all sides, motivating extremists to take drastic steps to sabotage it. As we saw Tuesday in the deadly assault on a civilian vehicle—claimed with pride by Hamas—the road to peace will likely be obstructed by violence. While miniscule in number and lacking broad support, Jewish fanatics have the same capacity to derail the negotiating process.
• The Palestinians still do not recognize any justice on the Israeli (i.e. Jewish) side. They view concessions as immoral. Thus any compromises they make will likely be tactical in nature, and limited. This will be evident in their approach to two questions: Are they prepared for Palestinian refugees to be absorbed by Palestine, not Israel? Will they recognize Israel as the fulfillment of Jewish self-determination?
• The Palestinians come to the peace table in the midst of a crisis of governance. Both the PA on the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza lack electoral legitimacy. President Mahmoud Abbas’s term expired in January 2009. Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, a single-member faction in the Palestinian legislature, runs an interim government without the approval of the Hamas-dominated parliament – although, according to Palestinian polls, he enjoys growing public support. The violent 2007 Hamas coup in Gaza distorted Palestinian electoral politics. Currently, both unelected governments are prepared to use force to curtail internal opposition. Hamas has no interest in an accord with Israel, and the PA may not have the ability to persuade its people to support one.
• The old Israeli debate over the Greater Land of Israel is largely settled, against its advocates. The obstacles on the Israeli side are more practical and security related, although equally challenging. A governing coalition based mainly on right-wing parties may find it politically difficult to agree to a substantial territorial withdrawal. Netanyahu could be forced to form an alternative coalition, or else go to elections to implement a peace accord, especially one involving the removal of large numbers of settlers.
• Following the experience of the Gaza withdrawal, Israelis have very little trust in the willingness or capacity of the Palestinians to provide safety in the aftermath of withdrawal from the West Bank.
• Large numbers of both Israelis and Palestinians do not trust the U.S. Administration. A recent Jerusalem Post poll found that 46% of Israelis think the American President is pro-Palestinian, with only 10% seeing him as pro-Israeli. Over 93% of Palestinians tell Bethlehem pollster Dr. Nabil Kukali that they think America supports Israel in the conflict.
• Reportedly, the negotiators themselves have low expectations for the talks. Both sides recognize that the current renewal of direct negotiations amounts to little more than a demoralizing recreation of frameworks that were in place before 2008.

Why they might succeed:

• Iran’s aggressive anti-Jewish, anti-Sunni, anti-American government creates a long-term shared interest in a regional response. The threat of the Iranian nuclear bomb is a nightmare that could play a paradoxically positive role in generating urgency and motivation to bridge differences.
• Surprisingly, regional analysts are telling AJC that recent Turkish moves to placate Iran and distance itself from its erstwhile ally Israel have only added to the sense of urgency, especially in Egypt and Jordan.
• Seemingly permanent obstacles to the peace process appear in check, at least for the moment. It remains to be seen whether the Tuesday attack was a sign of a new wave of violence. If not, we can say that terrorist violence against Israel from the West Bank is still at an all-time low. Settlement expansion has been drastically cut with the settlement freeze.
• The Israeli economy is doing better than almost any other OECD member, and the West Bank’s economy is growing at a remarkable rate, offering a tangible sense among ordinary Palestinians and Israelis that a peace accord would benefit them. There is increasing Israeli cooperation with, and confidence in, Palestinian security forces.

David Ben-Gurion once said: “Time works for us or against us depending on what we do with it.” And we might say to our leaders: Make the most of this time. Move beyond the blame game and focus on getting the job done.

First published at http://bit.ly/1nxcMyt